Speaking of crunched… ohhhhh, with only three weeks left in the semester, I’ve been crunched to find time to make a post. However, I can’t let go of this issue of the number of votes casts in the Shenandoah between 1856-1860, and the significant number of apparent absences at the polls when it came to the referendum on secession.
Actually, when I began creating the tables reflecting the votes cast in the elections of 1856-1860, I thought I knew where it would lead. However, I was still quite surprised about the total decline in votes between the 1860 election and the 1861 referendum. One might snap back that, certainly, not everyone shows up at the polls on election day. However, this was, plain and simple, some serious stuff. The referendum on secession meant a break from the United States and I think it could be considered by some as far more demanding of a presence at the polls than the presidential election of 1860.
Now, I’ve said it before, you can’t look at raw numbers alone and make a judgment, but after posting these numbers, I really am left wondering what happened to all those people who opted not to come out and vote on referendum day in the Shenandoah Valley. The difference between the total number of votes casts in the Shenandoah Valley in the 1860 presidential election and the 1861 referendum on secession was 2,562 (20,171 casts in 1860 and 17,609 in 1861). Granted, some people may have died between 1860 and 1861, but some others may have been eligible for the vote within that time as well (though I really doubt that either had any real impact on the numbers). Either way, the decline in total number of votes casts was 13%. That might not seem like a lot, but then, you have to consider the fact that there were actually 2,065 votes casts against secession in Valley counties in 1861 (remember, I’m also counting Rockbridge County, though it really isn’t part of the Shenandoah Valley). So, adding that 2,065 to the missing 2,562 votes makes a total of 4,627 who appear to have, either in person or through absence at the polls, opted against secession, even after Fort Sumter and Lincoln’s call for troops. That reflects nearly 25% of the total potential vote in the Valley. Let’s add one more thing to this… though, regretfully, these numbers are not as easy to assess. What about the numbers of votes casts by people who were either coerced or were otherwise pursuaded to vote for secession? Had these voters actually “voted their mind,” as some Southern Loyalist Claims infer, would the opposition have risen to 30% or 35% or even more? It’s probably impossible to tell. Then too, just how many of those who voted for secession were really (no, I mean REALLY) ready to go into the fight and “if need be, die…” ??? (I couldn’t help borrowing a line from Gods & Generals).
Hang on, I’ll get around to this next part of the confusion soon. I can’t say it enough that the war was much more complex than some realize… or care to believe.
borderuffian
April 14, 2008
RM-
“Now, I’ve said it before, you can’t look at raw numbers alone and make a judgment, but after posting these numbers, I really am left wondering what happened to all those people who opted not to come out and vote on referendum day in the Shenandoah Valley. The difference between the total number of votes casts in the Shenandoah Valley in the 1860 presidential election and the 1861 referendum on secession was 2,562 (20,171 casts in 1860 and 17,609 in 1861). Granted, some people may have died between 1860 and 1861, but some others may have been eligible for the vote within that time as well (though I really doubt that either had any real impact on the numbers). Either way, the decline in total number of votes casts was 13%.”
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Close elections will draw more voters…and those where the outcome is not in doubt will draw less.
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RM-
“That might not seem like a lot, but then, you have to consider the fact that there were actually 2,065 votes casts against secession in Valley counties in 1861 (remember, I’m also counting Rockbridge County, though it really isn’t part of the Shenandoah Valley). So, adding that 2,065 to the missing 2,562 votes makes a total of 4,627 who appear to have, either in person or through absence at the polls, opted against secession, even after Fort Sumter and Lincoln’s call for troops.”
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It would be a stretch to assume they were all against secession.
There could be several factors why they didn’t vote.
You get to drive in your car to the nearest polling place. They had to walk or ride a horse or wagon to theirs. Was it raining that day?
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RM-
“Let’s add one more thing to this… though, regretfully, these numbers are not as easy to assess. What about the numbers of votes casts by people who were either coerced or were otherwise pursuaded to vote for secession? ”
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Coerced? How?
Did they have to fill out their ballot in the presence of armed guards?
Did they not vote by secret ballot?
cenantua
April 14, 2008
borderruffian said: “Close elections will draw more voters…and those where the outcome is not in doubt will draw less.”
Are you privy to the demographics of voting in the middle 19th century in Virginia or are you making a judgment based on modern elections? Remember, I’m not just basing this analysis on elections. Also, an election is one thing, but casting a vote to break off a state’s affiliation with the Union is an entirely different situation. I have made clear that there was a gap in the number of voters between the 1860 election and the number of voters who turned out in the 1861 referendum. This is significant and merits further study, and I am presenting this.
borderruffian said “It would be a stretch to assume they were all against secession.”
I should have been more clear on this. It might be a stretch IF I assumed they ALL were against secession. Because of the gap in the number of voters between 1860 and 1861, the anomaly raises eyebrows. Because of this, my intent is to raise questions and present possibilities. The critical factor in this, however, is that I can make hypotheses because of evidence left from people who lived in that time.
As I might expect from someone who is trying to defend the myth of a “solid South” in 1861, it appears that you aren’t giving consideration to anything other than what you believe (your Civil War “memory”) and are ignoring other possibilities, not to mention evidence other than personal “memory” of how the war came to be. Everybody in the South was not for the Confederacy, and that includes those who had roots in the South from the earliest days of European colonization.
borderruffian said: “There could be several factors why they didn’t vote. You get to drive in your car to the nearest polling place. They had to walk or ride a horse or wagon to theirs. Was it raining that day? Coerced? How? Did they have to fill out their ballot in the presence of armed guards? Did they not vote by secret ballot?”
Not only did you pick and choose the posts to which you responded, but it is obvious that you neglected to take into consideration my first post in this line from April 1.
First, if the passion (emphasis on passion, bordering on radicalism) for secession was present, weather or no weather, why didn’t more turn out and vote for secession? A popular vote in favor secession was not a foregone conclusion come referendum day. Why was there evidence of any hesitation at all if the passion for secession was present and an imminent threat from the North felt by all? (and this question can be further extended to why the Confederacy had to enact three conscription acts in order to take in more men for military service over the course of the war). As it stands, in the Shenandoah Valley alone, at least 25% of the potential voters appear, AT THE VERY LEAST, to waiver in making that all-decisive decision to vote in favor of breaking from the Union. This is no small number.
It appears you aren’t giving any consideration to the evidence left in the Southern Loyalists Claims (have you read any number of them at length?) and you have no concept of what fear meant to someone who opted not to go to the polls out of fear. The Loyalists Claims records are not examples of revisionist history at the hands of a modern historian, but real history as told by those who were there. Have you ever been concerned about going to the polls and voting your mind? I doubt it – but they knew what it meant in 1861. When was the last time that you were told that someone had “hemp” prepared specifically for you in the form of a noose, if you voted your mind?
Some left a clear record of their fear. They didn’t go to the polls because, as many stated, they could not vote their conscious. Threats were made before the referendum and threats were made on the day of the referendum. Some referred to the day as an absolute frenzy of radicalism – and they were afraid to leave their homes. Some who did vote in favor (as is clearly stated by some in the Claims records), did so out of fear for what would happen to them if they did not. Others claim that they were led to believe that the only way to peace was to vote for secession. This is, without a doubt, a vote that was tampered with – and the tool with which it was influenced was FEAR. Coercion existed in the threats that were made prior to the polling day and on the day of the poll.
I have a story that I plan on passing along in a future post that reveals how two anti-secesh were murdered in the dark of the woods, in the process of praying, and in the presence of a Baptist minister. War crimes? You bet, and some of those claimed by neo-Confederates as committed by Union soldiers pale in comparison to how Southerners treated their neighbors of many years.